US Bombs Diminish Iran's Military Threat, but Ongoing Risks Remain

The United States' 38-day bombing campaign against Iran has significantly reduced the Islamic Republic's ability to threaten global security, according to Adm. Brad Cooper, the chief of Central Command. Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Cooper stated that while Iran's capacity to project power beyond its borders has been severely degraded, the threat remains not entirely eliminated. The campaign targeted the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which approximately one-fifth of global oil flows, where both sides have maintained a month-long stalemate with no clear resolution in sight.

Cooper highlighted that U.S. forces have destroyed over 90% of Iran's naval mines and significantly degraded its defense industrial base. However, recent media reports, including a New York Times article, suggest that Iran retains about 70% of its missiles and mobile launchers. Cooper refuted these claims, emphasizing the disruption of Iran's command and control structures, which he argued has severely limited their ability to produce or deploy weapons. Despite this, Iran continues to pose a regional threat, with groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis remaining connected to Tehran, enabling its influence across the Middle East.

The broader implications of the campaign include a reduction in attacks on U.S. service members and diplomats by Iran-aligned militias. Cooper noted that over 30 months before the campaign began, these groups carried out more than 350 such attacks. However, the ongoing stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz and the persistence of regional threats underscore the complexities of addressing Iran's military capabilities. While the U.S. has weakened Iran's ability to project power globally, the risks associated with Tehran's influence remain a significant concern for international security.