Space Force Urged to Prepare for Lunar Conflict With China

The U.S. Space Force must prepare for a potential "in-person" lunar conflict with China by establishing a human spaceflight program and redefining its operational boundaries, according to a new report from the Mitchell Institute. The paper argues that future competition over lunar resources and territory will likely escalate, requiring the U.S. to act proactively to maintain its spacepower advantages.

The report emphasizes the need for the Space Force to prioritize human spaceflight capabilities and align federal orders under Title 10 with China's military-focused space initiatives. This includes preparing for the deployment of active-duty troops to the moon and space stations, as well as fostering partnerships with NASA and commercial space companies. The paper also calls for additional funding from Congress to support these efforts, including residencies at commercial space stations and the potential acquisition of a Space Force-dedicated station.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits military activities on the moon, but the report argues that China's lunar ambitions, closely tied to its military goals, necessitate a strategic shift in U.S. policy. Kyle Pumroy, a retired Space Force colonel and the paper's author, suggests that while upholding the treaty is ideal, practical realities demand preparation for scenarios where military presence on the moon could become necessary. He also advocates for modernizing the treaty to address emerging lunar economies and resource utilization.

Experts like Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation note that the blurring of lines between space exploration and militarization reflects a broader shift in global space policy. The report builds on earlier Mitchell Institute proposals, which have increasingly focused on deploying Space Force personnel in orbit to enhance operational capabilities and deter adversaries. While no active-duty guardians have been sent to space yet, NASA has loaned Air Force and Space Force officers for its missions, including Mike Hopkins and Nick Hague.

The report underscores the growing strategic importance of space and the need for the U.S. to adapt its policies and capabilities to counter China's advancing lunar and military ambitions. As competition in space intensifies, the recommendations aim to ensure the Space Force remains prepared for future challenges, both diplomatic and operational.