Could Colombian ELN Guerrillas Face US-Venezuela Strikes Like Tren de Aragua?

The United States and Venezuela recently collaborated in a missile strike that killed Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, alias "Niño Guerrero," the leader of the powerful Venezuelan criminal organization Tren de Aragua. This operation has raised questions about whether similar military actions might be directed against the National Liberation Army (ELN), another armed group with significant presence and influence in Venezuela.

The ELN operates extensively in Bolívar state, which is rich in mineral resources such as gold. The region serves not only as a strategic location for illegal mining activities but also as a stronghold for the guerrillas who have long benefited from support within Venezuelan political circles. President Delcy Rodríguez has expressed interest in auctioning off these valuable deposits to international companies to bolster Venezuela's struggling economy and secure her regime’s stability.

The recent joint operation between US and Venezuelan security forces highlights an unprecedented level of cooperation aimed at dismantling organized crime networks, particularly those associated with Tren de Aragua. However, the ELN presents a more formidable challenge due to its disciplined military structure and extensive history of evading both Colombian and international efforts to neutralize it.

As Venezuela seeks to stabilize its economy through legitimate mining ventures, any disruption caused by ongoing conflict or illegal activities could jeopardize these plans. The potential for future strikes against the ELN would thus depend on how much threat their operations pose to national security and economic recovery efforts in Venezuela.