Democrats Refuse to Step Aside in Favored Independent Races for Senate

Democrats vying for two Republican-held Senate seats in Montana and South Dakota are defying calls from their party leadership to withdraw. Alani Bankhead of Montana and Julian Beaudion of South Dakota have both declared they will not drop out, despite pressure from national and state-level Democrats who believe the presence of independent candidates Seth Bodnar and Brian Bengs respectively gives them a better chance at victory in November.

Polling data and fundraising reports indicate that Bodnar and Bengs are gaining traction over their Democratic counterparts. In Montana, where President Donald Trump won decisively in 2024, Bankhead faces strong competition from Bodnar, who has shown significant support among voters. Similarly, in South Dakota, Beaudion is up against Bengs, another independent candidate with a growing base.

The Democrats' refusal to step aside could severely damage the party's chances of regaining control of the Senate this year. The deadline for Bankhead and Beaudion to withdraw from their respective races is approaching quickly, with Montana’s deadline set for August 10th and South Dakota’s on Tuesday. Party leaders argue that a crowded field diminishes any Democratic candidate's prospects in deeply conservative states.

Matt Bennett, co-founder of the centrist think tank Third Way, emphasized the strategic importance of clearing the way for independent candidates who could potentially caucus with future Democratic majorities or at least avoid aligning with Republicans. "Beating the MAGA Republicans is priority number one," he stated. "Who we beat them with is much less important."

This strategy has proven successful in other deep-red states like Nebraska and Idaho, where Democratic nominees withdrew to support independent candidates Dan Osborn and Todd Achilles respectively. However, a legal challenge from a Democratic anti-abortion pastor in Nebraska could complicate this approach.

Bankhead and Beaudion maintain their determination to run, citing the unpredictability of elections and their own grassroots appeal as reasons for optimism. "Nobody ever knows what’s actually going to happen on Election Day," Bankhead told POLITICO. "The people decide."

Despite these assurances, many within the Democratic Party believe that the party's brand is too tarnished in these states to secure victory. Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, acknowledged that while he supports Democrats ideologically, the strategic imperative is clear: "If a Democrat can't win, it’s both strategically and morally correct to give independents a chance."

The upcoming deadlines for candidate withdrawals will be crucial in determining whether Bankhead and Beaudion remain on the ballot or if they will face pressure from their party to step aside. The outcome could significantly impact the Democrats' broader strategy for regaining Senate control this year.