Latino Voters Shift Away from Trump Ahead of Midterm Elections

President Donald Trump's once-impressive gains among Latino voters are waning as midterm elections approach, according to recent polls. A new NBC News/Telemundo survey reveals that 59% of Latino registered voters now prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while only 35% favor Republican control—a significant shift from previous polling data.

The findings indicate a potential threat to Republicans' efforts to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives. In September 2024, Democrats led among Hispanic likely voters by a smaller margin; however, this latest poll shows Democrats ahead with 60% support for Democratic House candidates and 39% backing Republican candidates.

These results are particularly concerning for Republicans who had hoped to capitalize on Trump's improved performance among Latino communities in the 2024 election. According to a POLITICO analysis of that year’s voting patterns, Trump managed to improve his vote share by an average of over six percentage points in majority-Hispanic counties compared to 2020.

However, recent polling suggests that economic concerns and dissatisfaction with immigration policies are driving Latino voters away from the Republican Party. In the NBC/Telemundo poll, only 27% of Latino registered voters approve of Trump’s overall performance, while disapproval stands at a striking 69%. Additionally, 74% disapprove of his handling of economic issues and cost-of-living concerns.

Economic frustrations appear to be a significant factor in this shift. A majority of respondents (65%) believe that Trump's policies have negatively impacted their financial situations. Inflation and the rising cost of living are cited as top issues by 33% of those polled, with another 10% prioritizing jobs and the economy.

The ongoing war with Iran is also influencing voter sentiment, particularly regarding energy costs. The conflict has led to record-high diesel prices, reaching $6.53 per gallon in September, according to AAA data. In the CBS News/YouGov poll, 91% of Hispanic registered voters attribute rising U.S. oil and gas prices to the war.

Trump’s immigration crackdown is further exacerbating tensions within Republican ranks. Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), who initially supported Trump's tough stance on immigration, has since released an ad criticizing the administration for going "too far." This criticism prompted a swift response from the White House, with Trump first defending Salazar and then later reposting social media messages that called for her replacement ahead of the midterms.

In the NBC/Telemundo poll, 67% of Latino voters believe that Trump’s immigration enforcement has gone too far, compared to just 22% who think his approach is appropriate. This sentiment highlights a growing disconnect between the administration's policies and the preferences of key voting blocs.

While dissatisfaction with Republicans is evident, it has not translated into broadly positive views of Democrats either. The NBC poll indicates that Latino voters remain nearly evenly divided on the Democratic Party, with 41% viewing it positively and 42% negatively. Negative perceptions of the GOP have risen to 62%, up from 46% in September 2024.

These shifting dynamics underscore the complex challenges facing both parties as they navigate the upcoming midterm elections. The implications for control of Congress are significant, given that four out of five potential Republican pickup opportunities were identified in majority-Hispanic districts under the Texas redistricting proposal last year.