Global Security Experts Warn of Declining Diplomatic Efforts and Rising Military Tensions

International norms and humanitarian law are increasingly sidelined as new military technologies become more accessible, according to a two-day conference hosted by the Soufan Center and Qatar International Academy for Security Studies in Doha. The event brought together diplomats, government officials, and humanitarian workers who expressed growing concerns over the diminishing role of diplomacy.

Pierre Krähenbühl, director-general of the International Committee of the Red Cross, highlighted that conflicts are now often seen as a first resort rather than a last option. This shift has delegitimized diplomatic efforts and dialogues in resolving disputes peacefully. The conference participants noted that traditional alliances established after World War II by the United States and its Western allies are being questioned for their effectiveness.

Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri of Lebanon pointed out that countries like Israel no longer rely on alliances to engage in offensive military operations, indicating a shift towards unilateral actions in conflict scenarios. This trend is further exacerbated by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which has exposed Gulf partners such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to new security threats.

Sir John Sawers, former chief of Britain's MI6 intelligence agency, emphasized that the United States' declining commitment to its traditional security guarantees is undermining the international system it helped establish. He noted that these countries are now reconsidering their reliance on U.S. military support due to recent attacks provoked by the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Europe faces similar challenges as Russia intensifies its aggressive actions against NATO, prompting European nations to increase defense spending not because of pressure from President Trump but due to a perceived decrease in American reliability and an escalating threat from Russia. Sir John Sawers argued that the erosion of international norms is partly attributable to America's waning confidence in the system it designed.

Qatar, which has long sought to mediate conflicts in the region, found its efforts undermined when it became a target for attacks by both Israel and Iran in 2025 and early 2026. Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar's deputy prime minister and minister of state for defense affairs, identified three major threats to his country: sovereignty breaches, disruptions to energy flows from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and spillover effects of regional conflicts.

Despite these challenges, Tom Barrack, U.S. special envoy for Syria and Iraq, proposed a path towards easing tensions through diplomatic efforts such as initiating a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and reducing economic pressure on Iran's populace. However, he cautioned that resolving the underlying conflict would be a prolonged process rather than an immediate resolution.

Nick Warner, former director-general of Australia’s Office of National Intelligence and ambassador to Iran, bluntly stated that there is no clear end in sight for the war with Iran: "And the answer to how does the war with Iran end is: it doesn't." This stark assessment underscores the complex nature of contemporary global security challenges and the difficulties in restoring diplomatic efficacy.