Saudi Arabia Expands Missile Plant, Potentially Boosting Military Capabilities

Saudi Arabia is reportedly expanding its ballistic missile factory to produce larger solid-fuel missiles, according to a new study by U.S. researchers Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). The expansion could enable the country to manufacture more powerful weapons that can travel longer distances or carry heavier payloads.

The satellite images analyzed by Planet Labs, a U.S.-based company, show significant construction activity at the al-Duwadimi missile production complex located approximately 125 miles west of Riyadh. Between April 2025 and September 2026, researchers observed new buildings being constructed that are believed to house casting pits for solid-fuel missiles.

One newly built structure is estimated to be twice as large as the existing facility housing casting pits, suggesting a substantial increase in production capacity. The presence of protective walls around these facilities indicates heightened safety measures due to the volatile nature of missile fuel components. Additionally, another building appears to serve as storage space for raw materials or finished missile parts.

The FPRI researchers noted that this expansion could enhance Saudi Arabia's military capabilities by allowing it to develop missiles with greater range and payload capacity. This development would bolster the kingdom’s defense against potential threats from Iran and provide strategic leverage in its ongoing conflict with Yemeni Houthi rebels, who are believed to be backed by Tehran.

However, such advancements raise concerns about regional stability and arms proliferation. The possibility of Saudi Arabia producing more potent missiles could fuel an arms race among Middle Eastern nations, potentially destabilizing the region further. Moreover, these developments may intensify opposition within the U.S. Congress towards a proposed civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between Washington and Riyadh.

The FPRI assessment aligns with findings from other defense experts who have reviewed satellite imagery of the al-Duwadimi complex. These analysts suggest that Saudi Arabia is likely leveraging Chinese missile technology for its expansion plans, given historical evidence of previous arms deals with Beijing. This reliance on external suppliers underscores Saudi Arabia's strategic shift away from traditional U.S. military support in favor of more self-reliant defense capabilities.

Sascha Bruchmann, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), highlighted that longer-range missiles would allow Saudi Arabia to strike Iranian targets without risking its F-15 jet fighters against sophisticated air defenses. This capability could serve as a deterrent against potential aggression from Iran and help close the gap in offensive firepower between the two nations.

The expansion of missile production facilities is part of a broader trend across the Middle East, where other Gulf states are also enhancing their military arsenals to counter regional threats. Decker Eveleth, an analyst with CNA, noted that similar developments are occurring in countries like the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, indicating a widespread pursuit of advanced defense technologies.

As Saudi Arabia continues to bolster its missile capabilities, it remains to be seen how this will impact U.S.-Saudi relations and broader geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. The potential for increased arms proliferation and regional instability underscores the need for careful diplomatic engagement and international cooperation to manage these emerging challenges effectively.