Turning Point USA's High-Stakes Arizona Gambit Falters as Biggs Trails in Polls

Turning Point USA has invested a significant $18 million into the gubernatorial race of Republican Andy Biggs, aiming to make him the next governor of Arizona. This represents their largest expenditure for any candidate this election cycle and is seen as a critical test of the organization's influence within the GOP. However, despite these substantial efforts, Biggs has consistently trailed Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs in polls throughout the year.

Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, personally recruited Biggs to run for governor before his untimely death last year. The group’s heavy investment is viewed as a legacy project for Kirk and a pivotal moment for their reputation within the Republican Party. However, criticism from Arizona GOP insiders has mounted due to the delayed spending strategy by Turning Point.

Local operatives and officials have expressed confusion over why Turning Point waited until September to unleash its largest ad blitz, just weeks before mail-in ballots were sent out. This timing has left some questioning the effectiveness of such a late surge in campaign funding. Former Republican Congressman Matt Salmon noted that this could be seen as a "swan song" for Turning Point Action, indicating it may be their last chance to prove their worth within conservative circles.

The race between Biggs and Hobbs is crucial not only for Arizona but also for the broader political landscape. If Biggs loses, it would likely impact the organization's credibility and its ability to support future Republican candidates, particularly those close to Kirk’s legacy such as Vice President JD Vance, who Turning Point has already endorsed for president.

Despite the criticism, some Republicans remain appreciative of Turning Point’s efforts in a challenging political environment. Drew Sexton, Biggs’ campaign spokesperson, emphasized their gratitude towards the organization's support despite the tough conditions facing Republican candidates this year. Tyler Bowyer, chief operating officer of Turning Point Action, defended the group’s strategy, stating that it is primarily focused on ground operations rather than television advertising.

The Democratic Governors Association has also played a significant role in the race, spending at least $10 million to support Hobbs. In contrast, Biggs struggled with fundraising early in the campaign, reporting only $1.26 million in cash on hand compared to Hobbs’ reported $2.6 million. This disparity allowed Hobbs to dominate airwaves and entrench her lead well before the final push by Turning Point.

Critics argue that earlier intervention from national GOP groups like the Republican Governors Association could have made a difference, but these organizations remained largely absent from the race. The RGA declined to comment on their decision not to spend in Arizona, leaving Biggs’ campaign and its supporters questioning the strategy behind such decisions.

The outcome of this gubernatorial race will likely set precedents for future political campaigns and the role of outside spending groups like Turning Point USA. If Biggs fails to secure victory, it could prompt a reevaluation of the organization’s approach and influence within the Republican Party hierarchy moving forward.